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KoiPS vs MPS — Suomen Cup 2018

KoiPS
KoiPS
FT
3 – 1
MPS
MPS
3/17/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundMyyrmäki-halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KoiPS26%
×Draw19%
MPS56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KoiPS
1.79
MPS
2.65

MPS creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

KoiPS
2.00
MPS
2.29

allows per match

KoiPS
3.00
MPS
1.57

finishing

KoiPS+0.00on par
MPS+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KoiPS ↓

MPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

KoiPS or draw
44%
KoiPS or MPS
81%
Draw or MPS
74%

Winning margin

KoiPS wins by 2+
12%
MPS wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

KoiPS 1+ goals
83%
KoiPS 2+ goals
53%
KoiPS 3+ goals
26%
MPS 1+ goals
93%
MPS 2+ goals
74%
MPS 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

KoiPS (draw refunded)
32%
MPS (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KoiPS at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

MPS away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KoiPS attack 2.00 + MPS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

MPS attack 2.29 + KoiPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

KoiPS scores more
26%
level
19%
MPS scores more
56%

MPS at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "MPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KoiPS 3–1 MPS

KoiPS beat MPS 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Myyrmäki-halli in Vantaa.