Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KoiPS vs EPS — Suomen Cup 2018

KoiPS
KoiPS
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
EPS
EPS
4/8/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMyyrmäki-halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KoiPS16%
×Draw16%
EPS68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KoiPS
1.43
EPS
3.00

EPS creates 110% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

KoiPS
2.00
EPS
3.00

allows per match

KoiPS
3.00
EPS
0.86

finishing

KoiPS+0.00on par
EPS+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KoiPS ↓

EPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

KoiPS or draw
32%
KoiPS or EPS
84%
Draw or EPS
84%

Winning margin

KoiPS wins by 2+
7%
EPS wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

KoiPS 1+ goals
76%
KoiPS 2+ goals
42%
KoiPS 3+ goals
17%
EPS 1+ goals
95%
EPS 2+ goals
79%
EPS 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

KoiPS (draw refunded)
19%
EPS (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KoiPS at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

EPS away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KoiPS attack 2.00 + EPS defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

EPS attack 3.00 + KoiPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

KoiPS scores more
16%
level
16%
EPS scores more
68%

EPS at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "EPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KoiPS vs EPS

EPS beat KoiPS 4-2 in Suomen Cup on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Myyrmäki-halli in Vantaa.