Kohkwang 1–0 Mahasarakham United: Result & Stats

Kohkwang

1 – 0

Mahasarakham United

10/5/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundRambhai Barni Rajabhat University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kohkwang23%

×Draw28%

Mahasarakham United48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KohkwangExpected goals in this matchMahasarakham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.33

Kohkwang

0.83

Mahasarakham United

1.33

Mahasarakham United creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kohkwang

0.67

Mahasarakham United

1.33

allows per match

Kohkwang

1.33

Mahasarakham United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kohkwang+0.00on par

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohkwang ↓

Mahasarakham United →

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kohkwang or draw

52%

Kohkwang or Mahasarakham United

72%

Draw or Mahasarakham United

77%

Winning margin

Kohkwang wins by 2+

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kohkwang 1+ goals

56%

Kohkwang 2+ goals

20%

Kohkwang 3+ goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals

74%

Mahasarakham United 2+ goals

38%

Mahasarakham United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kohkwang (draw refunded)

33%

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kohkwang at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Mahasarakham United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kohkwang attack 0.67 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Mahasarakham United attack 1.33 + Kohkwang defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kohkwang scores more

23%

level

28%

Mahasarakham United scores more

48%

Mahasarakham United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff