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Kohkwang vs Chiangrai — FA Cup 2018

Kohkwang
Kohkwang
FT
0 – 2
Chiangrai
Chiangrai
9/30/2020FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kohkwang71%
×Draw16%
Chiangrai13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kohkwang
2.83
Chiangrai
1.17

Kohkwang creates 142% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kohkwang
0.67
Chiangrai
1.00

allows per match

Kohkwang
1.33
Chiangrai
5.00

finishing

Kohkwang+0.00on par
Chiangrai+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohkwang ↓

Chiangrai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kohkwang or draw
87%
Kohkwang or Chiangrai
84%
Draw or Chiangrai
29%

Winning margin

Kohkwang wins by 2+
50%
Chiangrai wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kohkwang 1+ goals
94%
Kohkwang 2+ goals
77%
Kohkwang 3+ goals
53%
Chiangrai 1+ goals
69%
Chiangrai 2+ goals
33%
Chiangrai 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kohkwang (draw refunded)
84%
Chiangrai (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kohkwang at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Chiangrai away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kohkwang attack 0.67 + Chiangrai defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Chiangrai attack 1.00 + Kohkwang defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kohkwang scores more
71%
level
16%
Chiangrai scores more
13%

Kohkwang at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kohkwang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Kohkwang 0–2 Chiangrai

Chiangrai beat Kohkwang 2-0 in FA Cup on September 30, 2020.