Kohkwang 1–2 Bankhai United: Result & Stats

Kohkwang

1 – 2

Bankhai United

3/27/2019

FA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kohkwang39%

×Draw23%

Bankhai United38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KohkwangExpected goals in this matchBankhai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.67

Kohkwang

1.71

Bankhai United

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Kohkwang

0.67

Bankhai United

2.00

allows per match

Kohkwang

1.33

Bankhai United

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kohkwang+0.00on par

Bankhai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohkwang ↓

Bankhai United →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kohkwang or draw

62%

Kohkwang or Bankhai United

77%

Draw or Bankhai United

61%

Winning margin

Kohkwang wins by 2+

20%

Bankhai United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kohkwang 1+ goals

82%

Kohkwang 2+ goals

51%

Kohkwang 3+ goals

24%

Bankhai United 1+ goals

81%

Bankhai United 2+ goals

50%

Bankhai United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kohkwang (draw refunded)

51%

Bankhai United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kohkwang at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Bankhai United away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kohkwang attack 0.67 + Bankhai United defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bankhai United attack 2.00 + Kohkwang defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kohkwang scores more

39%

level

23%

Bankhai United scores more

38%

Kohkwang at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kohkwang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff