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Kohfidisch vs Parndorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Kohfidisch
Kohfidisch
FT
3 – 3
Parndorf
Parndorf
6/7/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 30Stadion Kohfidisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Kohfidisch31%
×Draw22%
Parndorf47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kohfidisch
1.58
Parndorf
1.96

Parndorf creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 71 away

creates per match

Kohfidisch
1.88
Parndorf
2.20

allows per match

Kohfidisch
1.72
Parndorf
1.28

finishing

Kohfidisch+0.00on par
Parndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohfidisch ↓

Parndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kohfidisch or draw
53%
Kohfidisch or Parndorf
78%
Draw or Parndorf
69%

Winning margin

Kohfidisch wins by 2+
15%
Parndorf wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kohfidisch 1+ goals
79%
Kohfidisch 2+ goals
47%
Kohfidisch 3+ goals
21%
Parndorf 1+ goals
86%
Parndorf 2+ goals
58%
Parndorf 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kohfidisch (draw refunded)
40%
Parndorf (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kohfidisch at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.72 · 85 matches

Parndorf away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.28 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kohfidisch attack 1.88 + Parndorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.58

Parndorf attack 2.20 + Kohfidisch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kohfidisch scores more
31%
level
22%
Parndorf scores more
47%

Parndorf at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Kohfidisch 3–3 Parndorf

Kohfidisch and Parndorf drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Burgenland on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kohfidisch in Kohfidisch.