Kohfidisch 0–1 Markt Allhau: Result & Stats

Kohfidisch

FT

0 – 1

Markt Allhau

7/30/2022

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 1Stadion Kohfidisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kohfidisch49%

×Draw21%

Markt Allhau29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KohfidischExpected goals in this matchMarkt Allhau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.54

Kohfidisch

2.04

Markt Allhau

1.54

Kohfidisch creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

1.88

creates per match

1.37

1.72

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Kohfidisch

1.88

Markt Allhau

1.37

allows per match

Kohfidisch

1.72

Markt Allhau

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kohfidisch+0.00on par

Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohfidisch ↓

Markt Allhau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Kohfidisch or draw

71%

Kohfidisch or Markt Allhau

79%

Draw or Markt Allhau

51%

Winning margin

Kohfidisch wins by 2+

28%

Markt Allhau wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kohfidisch 1+ goals

87%

Kohfidisch 2+ goals

60%

Kohfidisch 3+ goals

33%

Markt Allhau 1+ goals

79%

Markt Allhau 2+ goals

45%

Markt Allhau 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kohfidisch (draw refunded)

63%

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kohfidisch at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.72 · 85 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kohfidisch attack 1.88 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + Kohfidisch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kohfidisch scores more

49%

level

21%

Markt Allhau scores more

29%

Kohfidisch at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kohfidisch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff