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Kohfidisch vs Güssing — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Kohfidisch
Kohfidisch
CANC
14:00
Güssing
Güssing
3/20/2021Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kohfidisch53%
×Draw21%
Güssing26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kohfidisch
2.21
Güssing
1.52

Kohfidisch creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kohfidisch
1.88
Güssing
1.33

allows per match

Kohfidisch
1.72
Güssing
2.53

finishing

Kohfidisch+0.00on par
Güssing+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohfidisch ↓

Güssing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kohfidisch or draw
74%
Kohfidisch or Güssing
79%
Draw or Güssing
47%

Winning margin

Kohfidisch wins by 2+
32%
Güssing wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kohfidisch 1+ goals
89%
Kohfidisch 2+ goals
65%
Kohfidisch 3+ goals
38%
Güssing 1+ goals
78%
Güssing 2+ goals
45%
Güssing 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kohfidisch (draw refunded)
67%
Güssing (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kohfidisch at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.72 · 85 matches

Güssing away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kohfidisch attack 1.88 + Güssing defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.21

Güssing attack 1.33 + Kohfidisch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kohfidisch scores more
53%
level
21%
Güssing scores more
26%

Kohfidisch at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kohfidisch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kohfidisch vs Güssing — Match Preview

Kohfidisch face Güssing on March 20, 2021 in this Landesliga - Burgenland fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.