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Kohfidisch vs Eltendorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Kohfidisch
Kohfidisch
CANC
15:00
Eltendorf
Eltendorf
5/9/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 25Stadion Kohfidisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kohfidisch55%
×Draw21%
Eltendorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kohfidisch
2.16
Eltendorf
1.36

Kohfidisch creates 59% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kohfidisch
1.88
Eltendorf
1.00

allows per match

Kohfidisch
1.72
Eltendorf
2.44

finishing

Kohfidisch+0.00on par
Eltendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohfidisch ↓

Eltendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kohfidisch or draw
76%
Kohfidisch or Eltendorf
79%
Draw or Eltendorf
45%

Winning margin

Kohfidisch wins by 2+
34%
Eltendorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kohfidisch 1+ goals
88%
Kohfidisch 2+ goals
63%
Kohfidisch 3+ goals
36%
Eltendorf 1+ goals
74%
Eltendorf 2+ goals
39%
Eltendorf 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kohfidisch (draw refunded)
70%
Eltendorf (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kohfidisch at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.72 · 85 matches

Eltendorf away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kohfidisch attack 1.88 + Eltendorf defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.16

Eltendorf attack 1.00 + Kohfidisch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kohfidisch scores more
55%
level
21%
Eltendorf scores more
24%

Kohfidisch at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kohfidisch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kohfidisch face Eltendorf (Landesliga - Burgenland)

Landesliga - Burgenland returns with Kohfidisch hosting Eltendorf. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kohfidisch host Eltendorf at Stadion Kohfidisch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.