Kohfidisch 0–3 Bad Sauerbrunn: Result & Stats

Kohfidisch

FT

0 – 3

Bad Sauerbrunn

8/10/2024

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 2Stadion Kohfidisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Kohfidisch40%

×Draw23%

Bad Sauerbrunn37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KohfidischExpected goals in this matchBad Sauerbrunn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.64

Kohfidisch

1.72

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.88

creates per match

1.55

1.72

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Kohfidisch

1.88

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.55

allows per match

Kohfidisch

1.72

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kohfidisch+0.00on par

Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kohfidisch ↓

Bad Sauerbrunn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kohfidisch or draw

63%

Kohfidisch or Bad Sauerbrunn

77%

Draw or Bad Sauerbrunn

60%

Winning margin

Kohfidisch wins by 2+

21%

Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kohfidisch 1+ goals

82%

Kohfidisch 2+ goals

51%

Kohfidisch 3+ goals

25%

Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals

81%

Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals

49%

Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kohfidisch (draw refunded)

52%

Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kohfidisch at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.72 · 85 matches

Bad Sauerbrunn away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kohfidisch attack 1.88 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.55 + Kohfidisch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kohfidisch scores more

40%

level

23%

Bad Sauerbrunn scores more

37%

Kohfidisch at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kohfidisch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff