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Koforidua vs WAFA — Division One League 2025

Koforidua
Koforidua
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
5/15/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koforidua50%
×Draw27%
WAFA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koforidua
1.44
WAFA
0.90

Koforidua creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Koforidua
1.60
WAFA
1.07

allows per match

Koforidua
0.73
WAFA
1.27

finishing

Koforidua+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koforidua ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Koforidua or draw
76%
Koforidua or WAFA
73%
Draw or WAFA
50%

Winning margin

Koforidua wins by 2+
25%
WAFA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Koforidua 1+ goals
76%
Koforidua 2+ goals
42%
Koforidua 3+ goals
18%
WAFA 1+ goals
59%
WAFA 2+ goals
23%
WAFA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Koforidua (draw refunded)
68%
WAFA (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koforidua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

WAFA away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koforidua attack 1.60 + WAFA defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

WAFA attack 1.07 + Koforidua defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Koforidua scores more
50%
level
27%
WAFA scores more
24%

Koforidua at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Koforidua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koforidua vs WAFA

Koforidua beat WAFA 2-1 in Division One League on May 15, 2026.