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Koforidua vs Port City — Division One League 2025

Koforidua
Koforidua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Port City
Port City
4/26/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koforidua36%
×Draw30%
Port City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koforidua
1.06
Port City
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Koforidua
1.60
Port City
1.33

allows per match

Koforidua
0.73
Port City
0.53

finishing

Koforidua+0.00on par
Port City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koforidua ↓

Port City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Koforidua or draw
66%
Koforidua or Port City
70%
Draw or Port City
64%

Winning margin

Koforidua wins by 2+
14%
Port City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Koforidua 1+ goals
65%
Koforidua 2+ goals
29%
Koforidua 3+ goals
9%
Port City 1+ goals
64%
Port City 2+ goals
28%
Port City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Koforidua (draw refunded)
51%
Port City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koforidua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Port City away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koforidua attack 1.60 + Port City defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.06

Port City attack 1.33 + Koforidua defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Koforidua scores more
36%
level
30%
Port City scores more
34%

Koforidua at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Koforidua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Koforidua 2–0 Port City

Koforidua beat Port City 2-0 in Division One League on April 26, 2026.