Koforidua 2–4 Hakla SC: Result & Stats

Koforidua

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Hakla SC

4/4/2026

Division One League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koforidua50%

×Draw26%

Hakla SC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KoforiduaExpected goals in this matchHakla SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.93

Koforidua

1.50

Hakla SC

0.93

Koforidua creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.13

0.73

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Koforidua

1.60

Hakla SC

1.13

allows per match

Koforidua

0.73

Hakla SC

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koforidua+0.00on par

Hakla SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koforidua ↓

Hakla SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Koforidua or draw

77%

Koforidua or Hakla SC

74%

Draw or Hakla SC

50%

Winning margin

Koforidua wins by 2+

26%

Hakla SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Koforidua 1+ goals

78%

Koforidua 2+ goals

44%

Koforidua 3+ goals

19%

Hakla SC 1+ goals

61%

Hakla SC 2+ goals

24%

Hakla SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Koforidua (draw refunded)

68%

Hakla SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koforidua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Hakla SC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koforidua attack 1.60 + Hakla SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hakla SC attack 1.13 + Koforidua defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Koforidua scores more

50%

level

26%

Hakla SC scores more

23%

Koforidua at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Koforidua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff