Koforidua 0–1 Accra Lions: Result & Stats

Koforidua

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Accra Lions

1/25/2026

Division One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koforidua45%

×Draw28%

Accra Lions27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KoforiduaExpected goals in this matchAccra Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.93

Koforidua

1.30

Accra Lions

0.93

Koforidua creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.13

0.73

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Koforidua

1.60

Accra Lions

1.13

allows per match

Koforidua

0.73

Accra Lions

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koforidua+0.00on par

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koforidua ↓

Accra Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Koforidua or draw

73%

Koforidua or Accra Lions

72%

Draw or Accra Lions

55%

Winning margin

Koforidua wins by 2+

21%

Accra Lions wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Koforidua 1+ goals

73%

Koforidua 2+ goals

37%

Koforidua 3+ goals

14%

Accra Lions 1+ goals

61%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

24%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Koforidua (draw refunded)

63%

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koforidua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koforidua attack 1.60 + Accra Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + Koforidua defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Koforidua scores more

45%

level

28%

Accra Lions scores more

27%

Koforidua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Koforidua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff