Köflach 3–2 TuS Heiligenkreuz: Result & Stats

Köflach

FT

3 – 2

TuS Heiligenkreuz

8/18/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 3Werner Skabitz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Köflach50%

×Draw22%

TuS Heiligenkreuz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KöflachExpected goals in this matchTuS Heiligenkreuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.38

Köflach

1.93

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.38

Köflach creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

1.75

creates per match

1.49

1.27

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Köflach

1.75

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.49

allows per match

Köflach

1.27

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köflach+0.00on par

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köflach ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Köflach or draw

72%

Köflach or TuS Heiligenkreuz

78%

Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz

50%

Winning margin

Köflach wins by 2+

28%

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Köflach 1+ goals

85%

Köflach 2+ goals

57%

Köflach 3+ goals

30%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

75%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

40%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Köflach (draw refunded)

65%

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köflach at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köflach attack 1.75 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.93

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Köflach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Köflach scores more

50%

level

22%

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

28%

Köflach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Köflach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff