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Köflach vs Schladming — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Köflach
Köflach
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Schladming
Schladming
4/24/2026Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Werner Skabitz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Köflach49%
×Draw23%
Schladming28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köflach
1.79
Schladming
1.29

Köflach creates 39% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

creates per match

Köflach
1.75
Schladming
1.31

allows per match

Köflach
1.27
Schladming
1.84

finishing

Köflach+0.00on par
Schladming+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köflach ↓

Schladming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Köflach or draw
72%
Köflach or Schladming
77%
Draw or Schladming
51%

Winning margin

Köflach wins by 2+
27%
Schladming wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Köflach 1+ goals
83%
Köflach 2+ goals
53%
Köflach 3+ goals
26%
Schladming 1+ goals
72%
Schladming 2+ goals
37%
Schladming 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Köflach (draw refunded)
64%
Schladming (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köflach at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Schladming away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köflach attack 1.75 + Schladming defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.79

Schladming attack 1.31 + Köflach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Köflach scores more
49%
level
23%
Schladming scores more
28%

Köflach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Köflach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Köflach 1–4 Schladming

Schladming beat Köflach 4-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Werner Skabitz Stadion in Köflach.