Köflach 2–1 Lafnitz II: Result & Stats

Köflach

FT

2 – 1

Lafnitz II

8/23/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 4Werner Skabitz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Köflach43%

×Draw23%

Lafnitz II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KöflachExpected goals in this matchLafnitz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.56

Köflach

1.77

Lafnitz II

1.56

Köflach creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 75 away

1.75

creates per match

1.84

1.27

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Köflach

1.75

Lafnitz II

1.84

allows per match

Köflach

1.27

Lafnitz II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köflach+0.00on par

Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köflach ↓

Lafnitz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Köflach or draw

66%

Köflach or Lafnitz II

77%

Draw or Lafnitz II

57%

Winning margin

Köflach wins by 2+

23%

Lafnitz II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Köflach 1+ goals

83%

Köflach 2+ goals

53%

Köflach 3+ goals

26%

Lafnitz II 1+ goals

79%

Lafnitz II 2+ goals

46%

Lafnitz II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Köflach (draw refunded)

56%

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köflach at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köflach attack 1.75 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Köflach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Köflach scores more

43%

level

23%

Lafnitz II scores more

34%

Köflach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Köflach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff