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Köflach vs Ilz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Köflach
Köflach
FT
0 – 1
Ilz
Ilz
6/7/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30Werner Skabitz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Köflach45%
×Draw23%
Ilz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köflach
1.80
Ilz
1.48

Köflach creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 88 away

creates per match

Köflach
1.75
Ilz
1.69

allows per match

Köflach
1.27
Ilz
1.85

finishing

Köflach+0.00on par
Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köflach ↓

Ilz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Köflach or draw
68%
Köflach or Ilz
77%
Draw or Ilz
55%

Winning margin

Köflach wins by 2+
24%
Ilz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Köflach 1+ goals
83%
Köflach 2+ goals
54%
Köflach 3+ goals
27%
Ilz 1+ goals
77%
Ilz 2+ goals
43%
Ilz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Köflach (draw refunded)
59%
Ilz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köflach at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köflach attack 1.75 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ilz attack 1.69 + Köflach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Köflach scores more
45%
level
23%
Ilz scores more
32%

Köflach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Köflach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Köflach 0–1 Ilz

Ilz beat Köflach 1-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Werner Skabitz Stadion in Köflach.