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Köflach vs Gnas — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Köflach
Köflach
FT
5 – 0
Gnas
Gnas
3/15/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Werner Skabitz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Köflach53%
×Draw23%
Gnas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köflach
1.88
Gnas
1.21

Köflach creates 55% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

creates per match

Köflach
1.75
Gnas
1.16

allows per match

Köflach
1.27
Gnas
2.00

finishing

Köflach+0.00on par
Gnas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köflach ↓

Gnas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Köflach or draw
75%
Köflach or Gnas
77%
Draw or Gnas
47%

Winning margin

Köflach wins by 2+
30%
Gnas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Köflach 1+ goals
85%
Köflach 2+ goals
56%
Köflach 3+ goals
29%
Gnas 1+ goals
70%
Gnas 2+ goals
34%
Gnas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Köflach (draw refunded)
68%
Gnas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köflach at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Gnas away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.00 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köflach attack 1.75 + Gnas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Gnas attack 1.16 + Köflach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Köflach scores more
53%
level
23%
Gnas scores more
25%

Köflach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Köflach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Köflach 5–0 Gnas

Köflach beat Gnas 5-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Werner Skabitz Stadion in Köflach.