Köflach 7–1 Frohnleiten: Result & Stats

Köflach

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Frohnleiten

3/21/2025

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 18Werner Skabitz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Köflach76%

×Draw14%

Frohnleiten10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KöflachExpected goals in this matchFrohnleiten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.94

Köflach

2.88

Frohnleiten

0.94

Köflach creates 206% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

1.75

creates per match

0.60

1.27

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Köflach

1.75

Frohnleiten

0.60

allows per match

Köflach

1.27

Frohnleiten

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köflach+0.00on par

Frohnleiten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köflach ↓

Frohnleiten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Köflach or draw

90%

Köflach or Frohnleiten

86%

Draw or Frohnleiten

24%

Winning margin

Köflach wins by 2+

56%

Frohnleiten wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Köflach 1+ goals

94%

Köflach 2+ goals

78%

Köflach 3+ goals

54%

Frohnleiten 1+ goals

61%

Frohnleiten 2+ goals

24%

Frohnleiten 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Köflach (draw refunded)

89%

Frohnleiten (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köflach at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Frohnleiten away — creates 0.60, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köflach attack 1.75 + Frohnleiten defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Frohnleiten attack 0.60 + Köflach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Köflach scores more

76%

level

14%

Frohnleiten scores more

10%

Köflach at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Köflach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff