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Koerich vs Koeppchen — Cup 2020

Koerich
Koerichadvanced
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Koeppchen
Koeppchen
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Koerich17%
×Draw15%
Koeppchen68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koerich
1.73
Koeppchen
3.42

Koeppchen creates 98% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Koerich
1.67
Koeppchen
4.00

allows per match

Koerich
2.83
Koeppchen
1.80

finishing

Koerich+0.00on par
Koeppchen+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koerich ↓

Koeppchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Koerich or draw
32%
Koerich or Koeppchen
85%
Draw or Koeppchen
83%

Winning margin

Koerich wins by 2+
8%
Koeppchen wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Koerich 1+ goals
82%
Koerich 2+ goals
52%
Koerich 3+ goals
25%
Koeppchen 1+ goals
97%
Koeppchen 2+ goals
85%
Koeppchen 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Koerich (draw refunded)
20%
Koeppchen (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koerich at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Koeppchen away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koerich attack 1.67 + Koeppchen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Koeppchen attack 4.00 + Koerich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Koerich scores more
17%
level
15%
Koeppchen scores more
68%

Koeppchen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Koeppchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koerich vs Koeppchen

Koerich and Koeppchen drew 0-0 in Cup on September 21, 2025.