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Koeppchen vs US Hostert — Cup 2020

Koeppchen
Koeppchen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
US Hostert
US Hostert
10/2/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundStade am Ga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Koeppchen14%
×Draw16%
US Hostert70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koeppchen
1.13
US Hostert
2.71

US Hostert creates 140% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Koeppchen
1.00
US Hostert
2.75

allows per match

Koeppchen
2.67
US Hostert
1.25

finishing

Koeppchen+0.00on par
US Hostert+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koeppchen ↓

US Hostert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Koeppchen or draw
30%
Koeppchen or US Hostert
84%
Draw or US Hostert
86%

Winning margin

Koeppchen wins by 2+
5%
US Hostert wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Koeppchen 1+ goals
68%
Koeppchen 2+ goals
31%
Koeppchen 3+ goals
11%
US Hostert 1+ goals
93%
US Hostert 2+ goals
75%
US Hostert 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Koeppchen (draw refunded)
16%
US Hostert (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koeppchen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

US Hostert away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koeppchen attack 1.00 + US Hostert defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

US Hostert attack 2.75 + Koeppchen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Koeppchen scores more
14%
level
16%
US Hostert scores more
70%

US Hostert at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "US Hostert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koeppchen vs US Hostert

US Hostert beat Koeppchen 2-1 in Cup on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade am Ga in Wormeldange.