Kocaelispor 0–0 Gölcükspor: Result & Stats

Kocaelispor

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gölcükspor

9/12/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kocaelispor39%

×Draw23%

Gölcükspor38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KocaelisporExpected goals in this matchGölcükspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.64

Kocaelispor

1.67

Gölcükspor

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.60

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kocaelispor

1.33

Gölcükspor

1.60

allows per match

Kocaelispor

1.67

Gölcükspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Gölcükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Gölcükspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw

62%

Kocaelispor or Gölcükspor

77%

Draw or Gölcükspor

61%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+

20%

Gölcükspor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals

81%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

50%

Kocaelispor 3+ goals

23%

Gölcükspor 1+ goals

81%

Gölcükspor 2+ goals

49%

Gölcükspor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)

51%

Gölcükspor (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Gölcükspor away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.33 + Gölcükspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gölcükspor attack 1.60 + Kocaelispor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kocaelispor scores more

39%

level

23%

Gölcükspor scores more

38%

Kocaelispor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff