Kocaelispor 1–1 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Kocaelispor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

G. Beridze 12'

F. Özhan 49'

10/6/2023

1. Lig · Round 8Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kocaelispor42%

×Draw26%

Erzurumspor FK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KocaelisporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.17

Kocaelispor

1.39

Erzurumspor FK

1.17

Kocaelispor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 110 away

1.72

creates per match

1.16

1.19

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Kocaelispor

1.72

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Kocaelispor

1.19

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw

68%

Kocaelispor or Erzurumspor FK

74%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

58%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+

20%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals

75%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

40%

Kocaelispor 3+ goals

16%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

69%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

33%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)

57%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.72 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Kocaelispor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kocaelispor scores more

42%

level

26%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

32%

Kocaelispor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Y. Gültekin

Kocaelispor · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

G. Beridze

20'

Mustafa YumluGoal cancelled

46'

46'

49'

62'

67'

A. Çiçek← João Amaral

74'

B. Alıcı← G. Beridze

83'

M. Çölgeçen← Y. Gültekin

83'

90+3'

90'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KocaelisporErzurumspor

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots7

5Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target5

7Off Target2

0Blocked0

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

518Total Passes281

421Accurate Passes185

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2