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Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
12/10/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 16Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kocaelispor42%
×Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kocaelispor
1.39
Erzurumspor FK
1.17

Kocaelispor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kocaelispor
1.72
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Kocaelispor
1.19
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw
68%
Kocaelispor or Erzurumspor FK
74%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
58%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+
20%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals
75%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
40%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
16%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
69%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
33%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
57%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.72 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Kocaelispor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kocaelispor scores more
42%
level
26%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
32%

Kocaelispor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Kocaelispor 2–0 Erzurumspor FK

Kocaelispor beat Erzurumspor FK 2-0 in 1. Lig on December 10, 2021.

The match was played at Kocaeli Stadyumu in Kocaeli.