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Kocaelispor vs Ayvalikgucu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Ayvalikgucu
Ayvalikgucu
9/27/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundDerince Belediyespor Doğal Çim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kocaelispor33%
×Draw22%
Ayvalikgucu46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kocaelispor
1.67
Ayvalikgucu
2.00

Ayvalikgucu creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kocaelispor
1.33
Ayvalikgucu
2.33

allows per match

Kocaelispor
1.67
Ayvalikgucu
2.00

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par
Ayvalikgucu+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Ayvalikgucu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw
54%
Kocaelispor or Ayvalikgucu
78%
Draw or Ayvalikgucu
67%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+
16%
Ayvalikgucu wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals
81%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
50%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
23%
Ayvalikgucu 1+ goals
86%
Ayvalikgucu 2+ goals
59%
Ayvalikgucu 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
42%
Ayvalikgucu (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Ayvalikgucu away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.33 + Ayvalikgucu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ayvalikgucu attack 2.33 + Kocaelispor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kocaelispor scores more
33%
level
22%
Ayvalikgucu scores more
46%

Ayvalikgucu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ayvalikgucu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kocaelispor vs Ayvalikgucu

Ayvalikgucu beat Kocaelispor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 27, 2022.

The match was played at Derince Belediyespor Doğal Çim Stadyumu in Derince.