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Kocaelispor vs Ankaragücü — 1. Lig 2018

Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ankaragücü
Ankaragücü
1/15/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 21Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kocaelispor42%
×Draw26%
Ankaragücü32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kocaelispor
1.46
Ankaragücü
1.25

Kocaelispor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Kocaelispor
1.72
Ankaragücü
1.30

allows per match

Kocaelispor
1.19
Ankaragücü
1.19

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par
Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Ankaragücü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw
68%
Kocaelispor or Ankaragücü
74%
Draw or Ankaragücü
58%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+
20%
Ankaragücü wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals
77%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
43%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
18%
Ankaragücü 1+ goals
71%
Ankaragücü 2+ goals
36%
Ankaragücü 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
56%
Ankaragücü (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.72 + Ankaragücü defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ankaragücü attack 1.30 + Kocaelispor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kocaelispor scores more
42%
level
26%
Ankaragücü scores more
32%

Kocaelispor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kocaelispor vs Ankaragücü

Ankaragücü beat Kocaelispor 2-1 in 1. Lig on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Kocaeli Stadyumu in Kocaeli.