Kocaelispor 2–0 Adanaspor: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Kocaelispor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Adanaspor

Pedrinho 61'

J. Vuković 45+6'

11/29/2024

1. Lig · Round 14Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kocaelispor52%

×Draw24%

Adanaspor24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KocaelisporExpected goals in this matchAdanaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Kocaelispor

1.67

Adanaspor

1.04

Kocaelispor creates 61% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 116 away

1.72

creates per match

0.89

1.19

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Kocaelispor

1.72

Adanaspor

0.89

allows per match

Kocaelispor

1.19

Adanaspor

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Adanaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw

76%

Kocaelispor or Adanaspor

76%

Draw or Adanaspor

48%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+

28%

Adanaspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals

81%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

50%

Kocaelispor 3+ goals

23%

Adanaspor 1+ goals

65%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

28%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)

69%

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.72 + Adanaspor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Kocaelispor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kocaelispor scores more

52%

level

24%

Adanaspor scores more

24%

Kocaelispor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Vuković

Kocaelispor · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

37'

44'

45+6'

50'

51'

57'

58'

58'

58'

61'

75'

79'

A. Tapsoba← S. Yépié Yépié

87'

M. Caktaš← Pedrinho

87'

A. Sağat← O. Çağlayan

88'

B. Tuzun← C. Diakité

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KocaelisporAdanaspor

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots8

3Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target1

7Off Target6

2Blocked1

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

537Total Passes382

453Accurate Passes293

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0