Koblenz U19 0–2 Holstein Kiel U19: Result & Stats

Koblenz U19

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Holstein Kiel U19

E. Torunoğulları 57'

M. Montserrat 30'

8/16/2025

DFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Koblenz U195%

×Draw11%

Holstein Kiel U1984%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Koblenz U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.58

2.88

Koblenz U19

0.58

Holstein Kiel U19

2.88

Holstein Kiel U19 creates 397% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.75

4.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Koblenz U19

0.67

Holstein Kiel U19

1.75

allows per match

Koblenz U19

4.00

Holstein Kiel U19

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koblenz U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koblenz U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0–03%

0–19%

0–213%

0–313%

0–49%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–42%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Koblenz U19 or draw

16%

Koblenz U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

89%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

95%

Winning margin

Koblenz U19 wins by 2+

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Koblenz U19 1+ goals

44%

Koblenz U19 2+ goals

12%

Koblenz U19 3+ goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

94%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

78%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Koblenz U19 (draw refunded)

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Koblenz U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Koblenz U19 attack 0.67 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.75 + Koblenz U19 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

Koblenz U19 scores more

level

11%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

84%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. Montserrat

57'

E. Torunoğulları

Koblenz

Holstein

Manager: C. Akkaya

Manager: J. Kaps