Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Koblach vs Hard — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Koblach
Koblach
FT
2 – 0
Hard
Hard
4/2/2023Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 20Sportplatz Im Lohma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koblach37%
×Draw22%
Hard41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koblach
1.74
Hard
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Koblach
1.53
Hard
1.45

allows per match

Koblach
2.20
Hard
1.95

finishing

Koblach+0.00on par
Hard+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koblach ↓

Hard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Koblach or draw
59%
Koblach or Hard
78%
Draw or Hard
63%

Winning margin

Koblach wins by 2+
19%
Hard wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Koblach 1+ goals
82%
Koblach 2+ goals
52%
Koblach 3+ goals
25%
Hard 1+ goals
84%
Hard 2+ goals
54%
Hard 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Koblach (draw refunded)
48%
Hard (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koblach at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Hard away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.95 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koblach attack 1.53 + Hard defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Hard attack 1.45 + Koblach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Koblach scores more
37%
level
22%
Hard scores more
41%

Hard at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koblach vs Hard

Koblach beat Hard 2-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Im Lohma in Koblach.