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Koblach vs Austria Lustenau II — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Koblach
Koblach
FT
2 – 1
Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
10/29/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 16Sportplatz Im Lohma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koblach40%
×Draw22%
Austria Lustenau II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koblach
1.89
Austria Lustenau II
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

creates per match

Koblach
1.53
Austria Lustenau II
1.54

allows per match

Koblach
2.20
Austria Lustenau II
2.24

finishing

Koblach+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koblach ↓

Austria Lustenau II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Koblach or draw
61%
Koblach or Austria Lustenau II
78%
Draw or Austria Lustenau II
60%

Winning margin

Koblach wins by 2+
21%
Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Koblach 1+ goals
85%
Koblach 2+ goals
56%
Koblach 3+ goals
29%
Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
85%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
56%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Koblach (draw refunded)
50%
Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koblach at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Austria Lustenau II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koblach attack 1.53 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.54 + Koblach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Koblach scores more
40%
level
22%
Austria Lustenau II scores more
39%

Koblach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Koblach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Koblach 2–1 Austria Lustenau II

Koblach beat Austria Lustenau II 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Im Lohma in Koblach.