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Koblach vs Alberschwende — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Koblach
Koblach
FT
1 – 3
Alberschwende
Alberschwende
10/9/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 13Sportplatz Im Lohma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Koblach32%
×Draw22%
Alberschwende46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koblach
1.58
Alberschwende
1.94

Alberschwende creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Koblach
1.53
Alberschwende
1.68

allows per match

Koblach
2.20
Alberschwende
1.62

finishing

Koblach+0.00on par
Alberschwende+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koblach ↓

Alberschwende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Koblach or draw
54%
Koblach or Alberschwende
78%
Draw or Alberschwende
68%

Winning margin

Koblach wins by 2+
15%
Alberschwende wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Koblach 1+ goals
79%
Koblach 2+ goals
47%
Koblach 3+ goals
21%
Alberschwende 1+ goals
86%
Alberschwende 2+ goals
58%
Alberschwende 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Koblach (draw refunded)
41%
Alberschwende (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koblach at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Alberschwende away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koblach attack 1.53 + Alberschwende defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Alberschwende attack 1.68 + Koblach defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Koblach scores more
32%
level
22%
Alberschwende scores more
46%

Alberschwende at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alberschwende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Koblach 1–3 Alberschwende

Alberschwende beat Koblach 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Im Lohma in Koblach.