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Kober vs Wad Nubawi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Kober
Kober
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
6/17/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 19Altahrir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kober38%
×Draw32%
Wad Nubawi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kober
1.01
Wad Nubawi
0.84

Kober creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kober
0.95
Wad Nubawi
0.71

allows per match

Kober
0.97
Wad Nubawi
1.07

finishing

Kober+0.00on par
Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kober ↓

Wad Nubawi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kober or draw
71%
Kober or Wad Nubawi
68%
Draw or Wad Nubawi
62%

Winning margin

Kober wins by 2+
15%
Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kober 1+ goals
64%
Kober 2+ goals
27%
Kober 3+ goals
8%
Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
57%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
21%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kober (draw refunded)
57%
Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kober at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kober attack 0.95 + Wad Nubawi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Wad Nubawi attack 0.71 + Kober defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kober scores more
38%
level
32%
Wad Nubawi scores more
29%

Kober at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kober will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Kober 0–0 Wad Nubawi

Kober and Wad Nubawi drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 17, 2022.

The match was played at Altahrir Stadium in Khartoum North.