Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kober vs Umm Mughad — Sudani Premier League 2025

Kober
Kober
FT
0 – 0
Umm Mughad
Umm Mughad
1/11/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Dongola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kober28%
×Draw31%
Umm Mughad41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kober
0.85
Umm Mughad
1.09

Umm Mughad creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kober
0.44
Umm Mughad
1.18

allows per match

Kober
1.00
Umm Mughad
1.27

finishing

Kober+0.00on par
Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kober ↓

Umm Mughad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kober or draw
59%
Kober or Umm Mughad
69%
Draw or Umm Mughad
72%

Winning margin

Kober wins by 2+
9%
Umm Mughad wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kober 1+ goals
57%
Kober 2+ goals
21%
Kober 3+ goals
5%
Umm Mughad 1+ goals
66%
Umm Mughad 2+ goals
30%
Umm Mughad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kober (draw refunded)
41%
Umm Mughad (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kober at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kober attack 0.44 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.85

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Kober defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kober scores more
28%
level
31%
Umm Mughad scores more
41%

Umm Mughad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kober vs Umm Mughad

Kober and Umm Mughad drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Dongola Stadium in Dongola.