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Kober vs Tuti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Kober
Kober
FT
4 – 1
Tuti
Tuti
6/24/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 21Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kober40%
×Draw31%
Tuti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kober
1.10
Tuti
0.91

Kober creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kober
0.95
Tuti
0.84

allows per match

Kober
0.97
Tuti
1.25

finishing

Kober+0.00on par
Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kober ↓

Tuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kober or draw
70%
Kober or Tuti
69%
Draw or Tuti
60%

Winning margin

Kober wins by 2+
16%
Tuti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kober 1+ goals
67%
Kober 2+ goals
30%
Kober 3+ goals
10%
Tuti 1+ goals
60%
Tuti 2+ goals
23%
Tuti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kober (draw refunded)
57%
Tuti (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kober at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kober attack 0.95 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tuti attack 0.84 + Kober defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kober scores more
40%
level
31%
Tuti scores more
30%

Kober at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kober will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kober 4 – 1 Tuti

Kober beat Tuti 4-1 in Sudani Premier League on June 24, 2022.

The match was played at Kober Stadium in Khartoum North.