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Kober vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2025

Kober
Kober
FT
0 – 3
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
1/22/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kober19%
×Draw33%
Al Shorta48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kober
0.58
Al Shorta
1.09

Al Shorta creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kober
0.44
Al Shorta
1.18

allows per match

Kober
1.00
Al Shorta
0.73

finishing

Kober+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kober ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–121%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Kober or draw
52%
Kober or Al Shorta
67%
Draw or Al Shorta
81%

Winning margin

Kober wins by 2+
5%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kober 1+ goals
44%
Kober 2+ goals
12%
Kober 3+ goals
2%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
66%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
30%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kober (draw refunded)
29%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kober at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kober attack 0.44 + Al Shorta defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.58

Al Shorta attack 1.18 + Kober defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kober scores more
19%
level
33%
Al Shorta scores more
48%

Al Shorta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kober vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Kober 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 22, 2026.