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Kober vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2025

Kober
Kober
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
1/21/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3Dongola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kober25%
×Draw37%
Al-Ahly Merowe38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kober
0.63
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.86

Al-Ahly Merowe creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kober
0.50
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.63

allows per match

Kober
1.10
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.75

finishing

Kober+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kober ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–119%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Kober or draw
62%
Kober or Al-Ahly Merowe
63%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
75%

Winning margin

Kober wins by 2+
7%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kober 1+ goals
47%
Kober 2+ goals
13%
Kober 3+ goals
3%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
58%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
21%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kober (draw refunded)
39%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kober at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kober attack 0.50 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.63

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.63 + Kober defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kober scores more
25%
level
37%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
38%

Al-Ahly Merowe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Ahly Merowe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Kober 1–0 Al-Ahly Merowe

Kober beat Al-Ahly Merowe 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 21, 2025.

The match was played at Dongola Stadium in Dongola.