Knockbreda 2–0 Bangor: Result & Stats | League #407

Knockbreda

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bangor

M. Greer 52'

Unknown 50'

5/14/2022

League #407 · Relegation RoundBreda Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Knockbreda23%

×Draw19%

Bangor57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KnockbredaExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.44

Knockbreda

1.52

Bangor

2.44

Bangor creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

1.71

creates per match

2.58

2.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Knockbreda

1.71

Bangor

2.58

allows per match

Knockbreda

2.29

Bangor

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Knockbreda+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Knockbreda ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Knockbreda or draw

43%

Knockbreda or Bangor

81%

Draw or Bangor

77%

Winning margin

Knockbreda wins by 2+

10%

Bangor wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Knockbreda 1+ goals

78%

Knockbreda 2+ goals

45%

Knockbreda 3+ goals

20%

Bangor 1+ goals

91%

Bangor 2+ goals

70%

Bangor 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Knockbreda (draw refunded)

29%

Bangor (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Knockbreda at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Knockbreda attack 1.71 + Bangor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bangor attack 2.58 + Knockbreda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Knockbreda scores more

23%

level

19%

Bangor scores more

57%

Bangor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

52'

M. Greer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff