Bangor 4–1 Knockbreda: Result & Stats

Bangor

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Knockbreda

M. Bradley 90'

K. Reid 88'

B. Cushnie 73'

M. Tom 63'

Unknown 83'

7/8/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bangor48%

×Draw19%

Knockbreda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangorExpected goals in this matchKnockbreda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

2.06

Bangor

2.52

Knockbreda

2.06

Bangor creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.70

creates per match

2.33

1.80

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Bangor

1.70

Knockbreda

2.33

allows per match

Bangor

1.80

Knockbreda

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par

Knockbreda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Knockbreda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Bangor or draw

68%

Bangor or Knockbreda

81%

Draw or Knockbreda

52%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+

30%

Knockbreda wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals

92%

Bangor 2+ goals

71%

Bangor 3+ goals

45%

Knockbreda 1+ goals

87%

Knockbreda 2+ goals

61%

Knockbreda 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)

60%

Knockbreda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Knockbreda away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 1.70 + Knockbreda defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.52

Knockbreda attack 2.33 + Bangor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bangor scores more

48%

level

19%

Knockbreda scores more

32%

Bangor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

M. Tom

73'

B. Cushnie

83'

88'

K. Reid

90'

M. Bradley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff