Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KMKM vs Al-Ittihad — CAF Champions League 2019

KMKM
KMKM
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Ittihad
Al-Ittihad
9/12/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundAmaan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KMKM13%
×Draw29%
Al-Ittihad59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMKM
0.46
Al-Ittihad
1.33

Al-Ittihad creates 189% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

KMKM
0.25
Al-Ittihad
0.67

allows per match

KMKM
2.00
Al-Ittihad
0.67

finishing

KMKM+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMKM ↓

Al-Ittihad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–122%
0–215%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

KMKM or draw
41%
KMKM or Al-Ittihad
71%
Draw or Al-Ittihad
87%

Winning margin

KMKM wins by 2+
3%
Al-Ittihad wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

KMKM 1+ goals
37%
KMKM 2+ goals
8%
KMKM 3+ goals
1%
Al-Ittihad 1+ goals
74%
Al-Ittihad 2+ goals
38%
Al-Ittihad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KMKM (draw refunded)
18%
Al-Ittihad (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMKM at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Al-Ittihad away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMKM attack 0.25 + Al-Ittihad defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.46

Al-Ittihad attack 0.67 + KMKM defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KMKM scores more
13%
level
29%
Al-Ittihad scores more
59%

Al-Ittihad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al-Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: KMKM 0–2 Al-Ittihad

Al-Ittihad beat KMKM 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Amaan Stadium in Zanzibar City.