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KMC vs Pamba Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
12/16/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 15KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

KMC39%
×Draw30%
Pamba Jiji31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.14
Pamba Jiji
0.98

KMC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

creates per match

KMC
0.75
Pamba Jiji
0.47

allows per match

KMC
1.50
Pamba Jiji
1.53

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Pamba Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Pamba Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

KMC or draw
69%
KMC or Pamba Jiji
70%
Draw or Pamba Jiji
61%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
16%
Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
68%
KMC 2+ goals
32%
KMC 3+ goals
11%
Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
62%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
26%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
56%
Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

Pamba Jiji away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.75 + Pamba Jiji defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.14

Pamba Jiji attack 0.47 + KMC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KMC scores more
39%
level
30%
Pamba Jiji scores more
31%

KMC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: KMC 1–0 Pamba Jiji

KMC beat Pamba Jiji 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 16, 2024.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.