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KMC vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
I. Ahmed 15'
10/31/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 8Uhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

KMC41%
×Draw28%
Mtibwa Sugar31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.26
Mtibwa Sugar
1.06

KMC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

creates per match

KMC
0.88
Mtibwa Sugar
0.55

allows per match

KMC
1.56
Mtibwa Sugar
1.65

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KMC or draw
69%
KMC or Mtibwa Sugar
72%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
59%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
18%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
72%
KMC 2+ goals
36%
KMC 3+ goals
13%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
57%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.88 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.55 + KMC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KMC scores more
41%
level
28%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
31%

KMC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
I. Ahmed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: KMC 1–0 Mtibwa Sugar

KMC beat Mtibwa Sugar 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 31, 2023.

Goals: I. Ahmed (15').

The match was played at Uhuru Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.