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KMC vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMCadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
A. Ally 28'
D. Saliboko 3'
6/16/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Relegation Play-offs - FinalUhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

KMC39%
×Draw27%
Mbeya City34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.34
Mbeya City
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

creates per match

KMC
0.88
Mbeya City
0.89

allows per match

KMC
1.56
Mbeya City
1.81

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

KMC or draw
66%
KMC or Mbeya City
73%
Draw or Mbeya City
61%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
18%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
74%
KMC 2+ goals
39%
KMC 3+ goals
15%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
71%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
35%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
54%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.88 + Mbeya City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mbeya City attack 0.89 + KMC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KMC scores more
39%
level
27%
Mbeya City scores more
34%

KMC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Saliboko
28'
A. Ally

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KMC vs Mbeya City

KMC beat Mbeya City 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 16, 2023.

Goals: D. Saliboko (3'), A. Ally (28').

The match was played at Uhuru Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.