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KMC vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
W. Maseke 68' (OG)
H. Maulid 10'
2/18/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 20KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KMC34%
×Draw29%
JKT Tanzania37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.09
JKT Tanzania
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

creates per match

KMC
0.91
JKT Tanzania
0.79

allows per match

KMC
1.51
JKT Tanzania
1.27

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KMC or draw
63%
KMC or JKT Tanzania
71%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
66%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
14%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
66%
KMC 2+ goals
30%
KMC 3+ goals
10%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
68%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
32%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
48%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.91 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

JKT Tanzania attack 0.79 + KMC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

KMC scores more
34%
level
29%
JKT Tanzania scores more
37%

JKT Tanzania at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
H. Maulid
49'
68'
W. MasekeOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KMC vs JKT Tanzania

JKT Tanzania beat KMC 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 18, 2025.

Goals: H. Maulid (10'), W. Maseke (68' o.g.).

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.