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KMC vs Gwambina — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

KMC
KMC
FT
3 – 0
Gwambina
Gwambina
4/16/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 23Uhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KMC45%
×Draw27%
Gwambina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.39
Gwambina
1.02

KMC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

KMC
1.24
Gwambina
0.94

allows per match

KMC
1.11
Gwambina
1.53

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Gwambina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KMC or draw
72%
KMC or Gwambina
73%
Draw or Gwambina
55%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
22%
Gwambina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
75%
KMC 2+ goals
40%
KMC 3+ goals
16%
Gwambina 1+ goals
64%
Gwambina 2+ goals
27%
Gwambina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
62%
Gwambina (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 112 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 1.24 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gwambina attack 0.94 + KMC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KMC scores more
45%
level
27%
Gwambina scores more
28%

KMC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KMC vs Gwambina

KMC beat Gwambina 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Uhuru Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.