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KMC vs Fountain Gate — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
P. Oscar 45'
E. Mokono 90+3', 77'
3/6/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 23KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KMC37%
×Draw28%
Fountain Gate35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.20
Fountain Gate
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

KMC
0.88
Fountain Gate
0.73

allows per match

KMC
1.56
Fountain Gate
1.52

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Fountain Gate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KMC or draw
65%
KMC or Fountain Gate
72%
Draw or Fountain Gate
63%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
16%
Fountain Gate wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
70%
KMC 2+ goals
34%
KMC 3+ goals
12%
Fountain Gate 1+ goals
68%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
32%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
52%
Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.88 + Fountain Gate defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fountain Gate attack 0.73 + KMC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

KMC scores more
37%
level
28%
Fountain Gate scores more
35%

KMC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
P. Oscar
77'
E. Mokono
90+3'
E. Mokono

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: KMC 1–2 Fountain Gate

Fountain Gate beat KMC 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 6, 2025.

Goals: P. Oscar (45'), E. Mokono (77', 90+3').

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.