KMC 1–2 Dodoma Jiji: Result & Stats | Ligi kuu Bara

KMC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dodoma Jiji

11/3/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 9Uhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

KMC49%

×Draw27%

Dodoma Jiji24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KMCExpected goals in this matchDodoma Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.89

KMC

1.39

Dodoma Jiji

0.89

KMC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 92 away

1.24

creates per match

0.67

1.11

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

KMC

1.24

Dodoma Jiji

0.67

allows per match

KMC

1.11

Dodoma Jiji

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KMC+0.00on par

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Dodoma Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

KMC or draw

76%

KMC or Dodoma Jiji

73%

Draw or Dodoma Jiji

51%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+

23%

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals

75%

KMC 2+ goals

40%

KMC 3+ goals

16%

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

59%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

22%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)

67%

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 112 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 1.24 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.67 + KMC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KMC scores more

49%

level

27%

Dodoma Jiji scores more

24%

KMC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff