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Dodoma Jiji vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KMC
KMC
P. P. Kasunda 80'
I. Kipagwile 6'
A. S. Valentin 77'
11/24/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 12Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Dodoma Jiji54%
×Draw26%
KMC20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.49
KMC
0.79

Dodoma Jiji creates 89% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.11
KMC
0.54

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.04
KMC
1.86

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
80%
Dodoma Jiji or KMC
74%
Draw or KMC
46%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
28%
KMC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
77%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
44%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
19%
KMC 1+ goals
55%
KMC 2+ goals
19%
KMC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
73%
KMC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

KMC away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.11 + KMC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

KMC attack 0.54 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
54%
level
26%
KMC scores more
20%

Dodoma Jiji at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
I. Kipagwile
77'
A. S. Valentin
80'
P. P. Kasunda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Dodoma Jiji 2–1 KMC

Dodoma Jiji beat KMC 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 24, 2024.

Goals: I. Kipagwile (6'), A. S. Valentin (77'), P. P. Kasunda (80').

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.