Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KMC vs Azam — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Azam
Azam
2/22/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 10KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

KMC18%
×Draw26%
Azam56%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
0.72
Azam
1.51

Azam creates 110% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

KMC
0.75
Azam
1.52

allows per match

KMC
1.50
Azam
0.70

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Azam+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Azam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KMC or draw
44%
KMC or Azam
74%
Draw or Azam
82%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
5%
Azam wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
51%
KMC 2+ goals
16%
KMC 3+ goals
4%
Azam 1+ goals
78%
Azam 2+ goals
44%
Azam 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
24%
Azam (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

Azam away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.75 + Azam defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Azam attack 1.52 + KMC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

KMC scores more
18%
level
26%
Azam scores more
56%

Azam at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KMC 0 – 2 Azam

Azam beat KMC 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.