Kluczbork 3–0 Unia Turza Śląska: Result & Stats

Kluczbork

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Unia Turza Śląska

3/15/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kluczbork53%

×Draw22%

Unia Turza Śląska25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KluczborkExpected goals in this matchUnia Turza Śląska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.29

Kluczbork

1.99

Unia Turza Śląska

1.29

Kluczbork creates 54% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

1.95

creates per match

1.21

1.36

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Kluczbork

1.95

Unia Turza Śląska

1.21

allows per match

Kluczbork

1.36

Unia Turza Śląska

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Unia Turza Śląska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw

75%

Kluczbork or Unia Turza Śląska

78%

Draw or Unia Turza Śląska

47%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+

31%

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals

86%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

59%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

32%

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals

72%

Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals

37%

Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

68%

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Unia Turza Śląska away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.99

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.21 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kluczbork scores more

53%

level

22%

Unia Turza Śląska scores more

25%

Kluczbork at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff